Model Accuracy & Backtest Reports
Transparency in numbers. See the statistical performance of our Alpha Engine across 40 match datasets in 2025.
Overall Accuracy
47.5%
Accuracy across total computed datasets
Datasets Processed
40
Set 2025
Accurate Validations
19
Out of 40 datasets
Brier Score
0.000
Lower = better calibrated
Log Loss
0.000
Lower = better
Est. ROI (Flat Bet)
-
If betting model's top pick
Analytics Log Database
A chronological output log of matrix calculations against real-world variances.
| Date | Dataset | Actual Output | Model Output | Confidence Index | Accuracy Validation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09/2026 | EspanyolvsSevilla | 1 - 1(Draw) | Home | H:42.2%D:21.2%A:36.6% | DEVIATED |
| 07/09/2026 | JuventusvsAC Milan | 1 - 1(Draw) | Away | H:49.3%D:0.9%A:49.8% | DEVIATED |
| 06/09/2026 | Eintracht FrankfurtvsFC Augsburg | 1 - 4(Away) | Home | H:49.9%D:1.2%A:48.9% | DEVIATED |
| 06/09/2026 | ArsenalvsChelsea | 2 - 1(Home) | Draw | H:42.2%D:15.5%A:42.2% | DEVIATED |
| 06/09/2026 | ValenciavsBarcelona | 0 - 5(Away) | Draw | H:42.2%D:15.5%A:42.2% | DEVIATED |
| 06/09/2026 | EvertonvsManchester United | 2 - 2(Draw) | Draw | H:42.2%D:15.5%A:42.2% | VALIDATED |
| 06/09/2026 | ParmavsMonza | 1 - 1(Draw) | Home | H:50.0%D:1.1%A:48.9% | DEVIATED |
| 06/09/2026 | FC TokyovsKyoto Sanga | 2 - 0(Home) | Away | H:49.5%D:0.9%A:49.6% | DEVIATED |
| 06/09/2026 | Vissel KobevsV-varen Nagasaki | 3 - 1(Home) | Home | H:49.8%D:0.9%A:49.3% | VALIDATED |
| 06/09/2026 | Cerezo OsakavsTokyo Verdy | 0 - 0(Draw) | Away | H:48.1%D:0.9%A:50.9% | DEVIATED |
| 06/09/2026 | Kashiwa ReysolvsYokohama F. Marinos | 0 - 2(Away) | Home | H:49.6%D:1.1%A:49.3% | DEVIATED |
| 06/09/2026 | Kawasaki FrontalevsShimizu S-pulse | 3 - 1(Home) | Home | H:49.6%D:1.2%A:49.2% | VALIDATED |
| 06/09/2026 | Nagoya GrampusvsMachida Zelvia | 1 - 3(Away) | Away | H:48.5%D:1.1%A:50.4% | VALIDATED |
| 06/09/2026 | Fagiano OkayamavsSanfrecce Hiroshima | 3 - 2(Home) | Home | H:50.7%D:1.1%A:48.3% | VALIDATED |
| 06/09/2026 | JEF United ChibavsGamba Osaka | 2 - 0(Home) | Away | H:48.8%D:1.0%A:50.2% | DEVIATED |
| 06/09/2026 | KashimavsUrawa | 0 - 1(Away) | Home | H:49.8%D:1.2%A:49.0% | DEVIATED |
| 06/09/2026 | AS RomavsAtalanta | 2 - 1(Home) | Home | H:49.7%D:1.0%A:49.3% | VALIDATED |
| 05/09/2026 | IntervsNapoli | 3 - 2(Home) | Home | H:50.0%D:1.0%A:49.0% | VALIDATED |
| 05/09/2026 | Athletic ClubvsAtletico Madrid | 3 - 0(Home) | Draw | H:42.2%D:15.5%A:42.2% | DEVIATED |
| 05/09/2026 | FulhamvsCrystal Palace | 2 - 3(Away) | Draw | H:42.2%D:15.5%A:42.2% | DEVIATED |
| 05/09/2026 | Nottingham ForestvsTottenham | 0 - 0(Draw) | Draw | H:42.2%D:15.5%A:42.2% | VALIDATED |
| 05/09/2026 | BrentfordvsSunderland | 1 - 1(Draw) | Draw | H:42.2%D:15.5%A:42.2% | VALIDATED |
| 05/09/2026 | Bayer LeverkusenvsUnion Berlin | 4 - 0(Home) | Away | H:47.7%D:1.0%A:51.3% | DEVIATED |
| 05/09/2026 | Werder BremenvsRB Leipzig | 3 - 1(Home) | Home | H:50.1%D:1.2%A:48.7% | VALIDATED |
| 05/09/2026 | 1899 HoffenheimvsBorussia Dortmund | 2 - 3(Away) | Home | H:50.6%D:0.7%A:48.7% | DEVIATED |
| 05/09/2026 | FiorentinavsTorino | 1 - 2(Away) | Away | H:49.3%D:1.1%A:49.6% | VALIDATED |
| 05/09/2026 | NewcastlevsBournemouth | 2 - 2(Draw) | Home | H:55.6%D:16.1%A:28.3% | DEVIATED |
| 05/09/2026 | Paris Saint GermainvsMonaco | 1 - 2(Away) | Away | H:49.3%D:1.1%A:49.6% | VALIDATED |
| 05/09/2026 | Real BetisvsReal Madrid | 1 - 0(Home) | Away | H:29.8%D:15.5%A:54.6% | DEVIATED |
| 04/09/2026 | Real SociedadvsCelta Vigo | 0 - 0(Draw) | Draw | H:42.2%D:15.5%A:42.2% | VALIDATED |
| 02/09/2026 | V-varen NagasakivsGamba Osaka | 2 - 2(Draw) | Away | H:48.8%D:1.0%A:50.2% | DEVIATED |
| 02/09/2026 | Yokohama F. MarinosvsKyoto Sanga | 1 - 1(Draw) | Home | H:50.4%D:1.1%A:48.5% | DEVIATED |
| 02/09/2026 | Sanfrecce HiroshimavsNagoya Grampus | 3 - 0(Home) | Home | H:50.2%D:1.0%A:48.8% | VALIDATED |
| 02/09/2026 | Tokyo VerdyvsVissel Kobe | 0 - 2(Away) | Away | H:49.2%D:1.0%A:49.8% | VALIDATED |
| 02/09/2026 | JEF United ChibavsFagiano Okayama | 1 - 2(Away) | Away | H:49.1%D:1.2%A:49.7% | VALIDATED |
| 02/09/2026 | Cerezo OsakavsKashiwa Reysol | 2 - 0(Home) | Away | H:48.4%D:0.9%A:50.7% | DEVIATED |
| 02/09/2026 | Shimizu S-pulsevsFC Tokyo | 1 - 1(Draw) | Home | H:49.5%D:1.2%A:49.3% | DEVIATED |
| 02/09/2026 | Mito HollyhockvsKashima | 4 - 2(Home) | Home | H:50.1%D:1.0%A:48.9% | VALIDATED |
| 02/09/2026 | Machida ZelviavsKawasaki Frontale | 2 - 1(Home) | Home | H:49.6%D:1.2%A:49.3% | VALIDATED |
| 02/09/2026 | West HamvsWolves | 4 - 2(Home) | Home | H:57.5%D:17.5%A:25.0% | VALIDATED |